Sounders celebrate Lamar Neagle goal 2017-09-11
Jane Gershovich

MLS Cup Playoffs probabilities: Seattle Sounders a near lock at 98 percent

As much as everyone is checking the standings this time of year, that still only tells part of the story as the Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs come into clearer focus.

Disparities in the number of games remaining, strength of schedule and other factors will also play into who ultimately finishes above the playoff line in both conferences, which could obviously be different from who is sitting there right now after Week 27.

FiveThirtyEight.com provides playoff probabilities using forecasts and SPI ratings, which you can read more about here, and they differ slightly from the current standings.

For example, Atlanta United has some games in hand and is given a higher playoff probability than two of their Eastern Conference rivals who are currently higher in the standings: the New York Red Bulls and Columbus Crew SC.

Out West, FC Dallas is given a substantially higher possibility of qualifying for the postseason than the San Jose Earthquakes, despite only one point currently separating the sides.

FiveThirtyEight also gives teams' odds to get a first-round bye, win Supporters' Shield or win MLS Cup. You can find all of those here, with those numbers are updated live shortly after a game is completed.

The Sounders, according to FiveThirtyEight, have a 98-percent chance to qualify for the playoffs, a 45-percent chance to earn a first-round bye and an eight-percent chance to win MLS Cup.

Here's a full look at their current playoff probabilities for all 22 MLS sides:

Eastern Conference

1.    x-Toronto FC - 100%

2.    New York City FC - >99%

3.    Chicago Fire - 98%

4.    Atlanta United - 95%

5.    New York Red Bulls - 93%

6.    Columbus Crew SC - 82%

7.    New England Revolution - 16%

8.    Montreal Impact - 13%

9.    Orlando City SC - 3%

10. Philadelphia Union - <1%

11. D.C. United - <1%

x-clinched playoff berth
 

Western Conference

1.    Portland Timbers - 99%

2.    Seattle Sounders - 98%

3.    Vancouver Whitecaps - 97%

4.    Sporting Kansas City - 97%

5.    Houston Dynamo - 83%

6.    FC Dallas - 73%

7.    San Jose Earthquakes - 32%

8.    Real Salt Lake - 19%

9.    LA Galaxy - <1%

10. Minnesota United - <1%

11. Colorado Rapids - <1%

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